McCain’s Lobbying Ties

McCain denies sexual relationship with lobbyist. 

John McCain’s relationship with Vicki Iseman, a lobbyist for the telecommunications industry, has drawn renewed scrutiny now that he has all but won the Republican presidential nomination. Apparently his senate staff began to notice she was visiting unusually often and intervened to protect their boss. McCain and Ms. Iseman have denied any sexual involvement, but hints of impropriety remain.

McCain’s much touted status as a hard-fighting reformer is challenged in a report today from the New York Times:

Like other presidential candidates, he has relied on lobbyists to run his campaigns. Since a cash crunch last summer, several of them — including his campaign manager, Rick Davis, who represented companies before Mr. McCain’s Senate panel — have been working without pay, a gift that could be worth tens of thousands of dollars. In recent weeks, Mr. McCain has hired another lobbyist, Mark Buse, to run his Senate office. In his case, it was a round trip through the revolving door: Mr. Buse had directed Mr. McCain’s committee staff for seven years before leaving in 2001 to lobby for telecommunications companies.

The Problem with “Anything it Takes”

Hillary Clinton has decided recently to attack her rival with renewed ferocity, aided by a Republican candidate who is deeply afraid of running against Obama. She is even going after delegates pledged to Obama, who are not in reality bound to support the candidate they are “pledged” to. She has decided, in other words, to attempt to overrule the will of the voters, if that’s what it takes.

At first, it sounds like a good plan for her to try for a comeback after ten straight losses. But if you play it out all the way to the convention, it begins to look like a monumentally bad idea. In 8 steps, here’s how her little game of chess ends, in a best-case scenario for her:

1. Clinton attacks Obama for the next 2 weeks and manages to turn the tides.

2. She narrowly wins Texas and Ohio.

3. They run even for the rest of the race.

4. Obama retains small edge in pledged delegate count by, say, 50.

5. Superdelegates break slightly for Clinton at the convention despite calls for unity by party leadership. On the strength of Bill, twenty or thirty “pledged” delegates turn to her as well.

6. Clinton wins the nomination by 25-75 delegates.

7. Democratic and independent voters alike become disillusioned with a party they see as distinctly un-”democratic.” Obama feels he has been cheated (because he has) and refuses to concede. There is some violence on the streets of Denver. The base of the Democratic Party is unwilling to contribute money to a campaign they see as having stolen the nomination. Even her most ardent supporters will see the similarities with Bush in 2000.

8. McCain wins easily in November.

Vice Presidential Possibilities

As the Democrats struggle between the smooth-talking wonder-boy and the sharp-shooting former first lady, their big-name supporters sit nervously contemplating their political fortunes – and holding their tongues. Who are these people? We have compiled an extensive list and ranking (1 being weak, 10 being strong) of Vice-Presidential prospects for both parties including serious contenders as well as long-shots.

For The Democrats:

• Evan Bayh – Moderate US senator and former Governor of Indiana. He has plenty of foreign policy experience and a history of working across the aisle. His centrist image and wholesome Midwestern charm could help Obama, but unfortunately he endorsed Clinton already. (7)
• Joe Biden – One of Obama’s safest (but not soundest) bets: grounded, experienced and politically adept without stealing any thunder. Joe Biden has a hard time stealing his own thunder. (4)
  
• Michael Bloomberg – Who knows what Bloomberg wants to do these days? If he ran for president as a third-party candidate, he would be skewered by Republicans – and split the ticket. He would probably take Veep from anyone who offered it, left or right, since he has an inflated view of his popularity. Not a good pick overall. (2)
• Phil Bredesen – He’s a centrist and a popular governor of a southern state, and would make a great back-up prez. But he’s not a good long-term prospect for the Democrats (he’s 64 now), and probably wouldn’t take the offer anyway. (6)
• Wesley Clark – Either candidate will have to go up against McCain’s military experience. Having a 4-star general as your running mate could really help. Not only that, but he also has name recognition from his 2004 run and a solid political action committee. He has been campaigning here and there for Clinton. (7)
• Chris Dodd – Smart move for any candidate wanting to add a Warren G. Harding lookalike to the ticket. Dodd is competent but would add little to any general election. But a safe choice nonetheless. (3)
• Mike Easley - Catholic Governor from North Carolina. His mixed fiscal record and pro-life stance may work in the south, but might not go over as well with Obama’s base of “latte liberals.” (5)
• John Edwards – The charismatic former VP candidate seems to have little interest being VP in 2008, but has yet to rule it out completely. For now, he has remained on the sidelines for fear that he will pick the wrong candidate and lose his chance to be Attorney General, which would probably suit him better anyway. In any case, two senators on the same ticket would not be a smart choice for either candidate. (5)
• Russ Feingold – The senator from Wisconsin has flirted with a presidential run in the past, and would likely take the job. His progressive credentials are unrivaled throughout his career: he was the only senator to vote against the USA Patriot Act, he fought actively to end the Iraq war, he favors universal health care and has remained adamant in his opposition to most of President Bush’s right-wing policy initiatives. Sadly, he lacks charisma though. (4)
  
• Al Gore – Gore seems to relish being on the sidelines of politics, but he now prefers to be the owner than the backup quarterback again. More likely to be appointed Ambassador to the World. And he would upstage Obama with his recent string of saint-like awards and accolades. (1 for Clinton, 2 for Obama)
• Tim Kaine – The governor of Virginia would be a very strong choice for either Clinton or Obama. He’s popular, young, and presides over a southern state that is now ripe to be recaptured by Democrats in the general election. And he would probably take the job. Ties Kathleen Sebelius (below) for best pick overall. (10)
  
• Bill Nelson – Florida Senator and former astronaut. A conservative democrat who has threatened to bring a law suit against the DNC if they refuse to seat the Florida delegates. Probably not at the top of Obama’s list, but could be handily rewarded if he gives Florida to Clinton. (3)
  
• Ed Rendell – Former 2nd lieutenant in the Army Reserve, DA and mayor of Philly, and current Governor of Pennsylvania. Rendell brings a lot to the table, but doesn’t aspire to be Number Two. He endorsed Clinton, which will help her in Pennsylvania, but his usefulness in this race probably ends there. (4)
• Kathleen Sebelius – The Kansas Governor’s endorsement of Obama puts her near the top of his VP list. She is a popular governor of a red state which has symbolic value as the “heartland” and would serve him well in swing states such as Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin and Missouri. Having a woman on the ticket would also increase the perception of making history and help him shore up the white woman vote. (10)
• Ted Strickland – The Ohio governor, who supports Clinton, told Fox’s Chris Wallace he is not interested in being VP. Not a strong candidate either way. (2)
• Tom Vilsack – The popular governor of Iowa dropped out of the 2008 presidential race early and became national co-chair for Clinton’s presidential campaign. He would be an option if Clinton was to pick up the nomination. (6)
• Mark Warner – Until he announced he was running for US Senate in 2008, there was a lot of talk about Warner taking at shot at the presidency. He is a conservative democrat who could help swing red Virginia blue in the general election and would be a huge draw for either Clinton or Obama.
  

On the Right:

• Haley Barbour – Governor of Mississippi and successful former RNC chair – Barbour is qualified to be VP and has reached his term limit as Governor. His former lobbying days would be a huge liability for McCain at this point.
  
• Michael Bloomberg - Billionaire Bloomberg would help McCain in the business community, but his positions on abortion, illegal immigration, and gay marriage would further alienate the constituencies he is trying to unite. (3)
• Jeb Bush – We believe W’s kid brother is going to wait four years to run: just when America is ready for another President Bush. For now, the country is sour on his surname, so he remains a lousy choice for McCain. (1)
• Chris Cox – Chairman of the SEC and US Representative from California. MBA and JD from Harvard, where he also taught a class on federal income tax. Beyond knowing the economy, he also chaired the Committee on Homeland Security, and the Select Committee on US National Security. (8)
• Charlie Crist - Governor of Florida and former state attorney general during the Terri Schiavo mess. More useful for his geographic location than his experience. 
• Jim DeMint – Free-Market loving Senator from South Carolina. Believes gays and single mothers should not teach in public schools, and WMDs will still be found in Iraq. (5)
• Steve Forbes – Former presidential primary candidate and billionaire. Forbes has the fiscal knowhow, as well as the social conservatism. He is a proponant of the Flat Income Tax that Huckabee has been getting applause for throughout his campaign, and would help McCain among checkbook conservatives. (4)
• Rudy Giuliani - “The National Security Ticket” would be an oversell in a general election occurring in an economic downturn. The former New York mayor has proven that his campaigning and fundraising talents are thin at best. (2)
• Phil Gramm – Former Texas Senator who would make the fiscal conservative and small government crowd happy. (3)
• Frank Keating – Former FBI agent, Oklahoma Representative, Oklahoma Senator, United States Attorney, United States Associate Attorney General, and the only two-term Republican Governor of Oklahoma. He was considered for VP and AG under President Bush. (6)
• Joe Lieberman – Getting a Democratic senator on board would signal to John McCain’s opponent that he is competing for the center. Lieberman does not appeal to any constituency McCain needs though. McCain is happy to have the support of a Democratic traitor, and did little to dispel rumors that he is considering the match-up. But it would undoubtedly be dubbed the “Old White Men” ticket if Obama becomes the Democrats’ choice, and Joe Lieberman holds no loyalties outside his home state. (3)
• Mike Huckabee - He’s doing McCain a huge favor right now by keeping him in the headlines, even if he’s taking away votes. His campaign took a less serious turn when he delivered a paid speech in the Cayman Islands, and it now appears he is just holding out because he’s got nothing better to do. In any case, he is a great orator with a quick wit that appeals to both conservatives and centrists and would be a powerful weapon to draw Christians in purple states to the voting booths. (8)
• Kay Bailey Hutchinson- Experienced conservative female Texas Senator with name recognition. Big oil and gas would love to have her in office once Bush and Cheney are gone. (7)
• Tim Pawlenty – Young blue collar Washington outsider who has been at McCain’s side from the beginning. He could balance out the old stuffy image McCain epitomizes. (6)
• Mike Pence – Popular mid-west congressman known for his support of tax cuts, and anti-”socialized medicine” stand.
• Robert Portman – Former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, United States Trade Representative, and U.S. Representative from Ohio. Portman is young, has solid fiscal conservative credentials and endorsed McCain in Ohio. Portman currently holds no public office and would jump at the opportunity to be VP. (9)
• M. Jodi Rell – Popular female Connecticut Governor that upset some of her party by signing a law allowing same-sex couples to enter into civil unions.
• Mark Sanford - Relatively unknown outside of South Carolina, Mark is a darling of the Christian right. He is a bookish young conservative who can talk about the environment and has endorsed McCain in the past.
  

Aaron & Fritz

On “Stealing”

A basic rule of “stealing” is that the stolen object was taken without consent. The dictionary definition:

to take the property of another or others without permission or right, esp. secretly or by force

Thus, when Hillary Clinton accuses Obama of stealing lines from Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick in his speeches, it is patently untrue. Deval Patrick urged Obama to employ a good line against Clinton’s claim that Obama is “all hat and no cowboy” or whatever regional slang she’s using at the moment to cloy her way to the presidency.

Here’s the dictionary definition of “desperate:”

having no hope; giving in to despair

Ohio Primary

Barack Obama faces a steep climb in Ohio. His core demographic – African Americans and affluent whites – are in short supply, and Clinton’s institutional support is strong. The election is probably going to be close one way or the other, but Clinton has the edge.

Several prominent facts will play a big role in determining the winner. Governor Ted Strickland has endorsed Clinton and is actively campaigning for her. So has Lee Fisher, the Lieutenant Governor, and Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones. On Obama’s side is David Wilhelm, who managed Bill Clinton’s successful campaign in 1992 and lives in Ohio. But his influence is probably limited

Although Obama has gained ground among key Clinton demographics, Ohio should prove harder to crack than Virginia, in part because of the strength of its old guard of party bosses who will pull for Clinton. On the other hand, Obama has the endorsement of two active unions: the SEIU and the UFCW, both of which have already begun to mobilize for him.

Given the contest is still two weeks away, it’s anybody’s game. Clinton is hoping today’s fight in Wisconsin will put some wind in her sails – or at least take some from Obama.

Superdelegate Map

This is a great resource. It shows you, state by state, which super-delegates have chosen which candidate, as well as those that are still uncommitted. These people can’t escape the all-seeing eye of Google.

Clinton vs. Obama: Round 36

After two high-level Hillary Clinton staffers are fired and Barack Obama kicks up clouds of dust as he trots past her, we all must wonder, aloud if possible:

Will Hillary do what it takes to win at all costs?

John McCain couldn’t dream of a sunnier future. He has already begun attacking Barack Obama in the hopes that it will even the score between Obama and Clinton and incite a fierce rules-based rather than votes-based battle for the Democratic nomination. This is a win-win-win for McCain: the more the Democrats fight, the more he can stand above the fray and act like a president. Some obvious talking points (you can use these McCain, if you want): “How can we expect either Democrat to unite the country when neither can even unite the Democratic party?” If Clinton wins without lead in pledged delegates: “It’s a little ironic, don’t you think, that they call themselves the ‘Democratic’ party.”

Clinton will fight to the last stand in Texas – but it may not be enough. The Texas system allocates delegates through a mixed primary/caucus system, and Obama’s ground game is more impressive. This is due to the fact that he prepared for a “long war” with Clinton whereas she did not even think past Super Tuesday – a telling indication of how her presidency might play out.

The only good solution short of either candidate dominating the large states by large margins (unlikely) is for Hillary Clinton to bow out gracefully. We can appreciate her ferocity and drive, and we all know she’s strong as a bull and smart as a fox. But it would be plain folly to attempt to override the most likely scenario of this election: Obama wins the popular vote and has a 50-150 lead over her amongst pledged delegates. A fight over super-delegates would tear the party apart, and would lend further credibility to the sad old adage that Democrats excel at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

More:

Clinton’s campaign shake-up.

Great election guide.

Al Gore weighs in to avoid internal collapse of Democratic Party.

Good for you, Al Gore! Keeping it real, Al Gore sees no point in jumping in just yet. He wants to work with the next president. This is great for Obama, since the elder statesmen (including Nancy Pelosi, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden) are all waiting rather than supporting their fellow senior statesmen, the Clintons.

New title for Al Gore? Ambassador At-Large for Climate Change

Maureen Dowd on Hillary

“…she continues to rank loyalty and secrecy above competence and ingenuity.”

What will McCain V. Obama look like?

BlueMassGroup has an interesting piece outlining “How Obama will be attacked” by McCain if he becomes the democratic nominee.

Texas Caucus

By all readings, Texas’s strange caucus/primary on March 4 has become a must-win for Hillary Clinton. A recent CNN poll puts Obama ahead by 4 points, and Frank Rich of the New York Times blasted Clinton’s campaign for having no post-Super Tuesday strategy. From Clinton: “I’ve got people trying to understand it as we speak. Grown men are crying as we speak. I had no idea it was so bizarre.” This contrasts sharply with Obama. In his speech after winning the Wisconsin primary, Obama started urging his supporters to send in their ballots early so they are more likely to show up on election night to pull for him in the post-voting caucus.

So now Clinton lags in polls, advertising prowess and momentum. She has been hitting Obama hard for his position on accepting federal election money in the general election and on his mailer pointing out that her health care plan forces taxpayers to buy health insurance. She also blasted Obama for being “like Bush” (saying he is “indecisive” – which doesn’t seem much like Bush) when it comes to foreign policy, and released a photo of Obama donning the garb of Somali elders on a Senate trip – this last apparently meant to scare Ohioans and Texans into thinking he is the Manchurian candidate.

Her new fear tactics are unlikely to be enough to collect a large majority of Texas’s delegates. If she loses either Ohio or Texas, she then must win over the remainder the undecided superdelegates (which is unlikely) as well as an ugly legal fight over the delegations from Florida and Michigan. This is all a sunny scenario for John McCain.

So how does the Texas Caucus work? Some key points to remember:

• Unless Senator Clinton can gain 62.51% of the vote in the four biggest South Texas Districts, she and Senator Obama will split most of the South Texas (largely Latino) vote. Obama’s union endorsements will help him dampen any primary losses by helping him in the caucuses after the polls close.

• Playing strong in South Texas will only prevent Senator Obama from defeat. In order to win, he must perform exceedingly well across the three major TX markets: Austin, Houston, and Dallas.

• The Texas caucus system awards the candidate with the most active voters who return to vote a second time at 7:15 PM on Election Day, and there’s absolutely no question that Senator Obama is dominating the caucuses. (–all from Burnt Orange – great site if you want to know the complex workings of their nominating process)

Delegates break down like this:

• 126 “primary-chosen” delegates, allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4.
• 42 at-large, “caucus-chosen” delegates that are filtered through Texas’s party system and awarded on the basis of strength at the post-voting caucuses. These are regular voters pledged to one candidate or another.
• 25 pledged “party delegates” that are decided at the state convention, roughly on the basis of a candidate’s caucus results. These are party leaders and elected officials.
• 35 unpledged “super delegates.” (4 are already with Clinton; 2 with Obama.

TEXANS: If you want to know which candidate your elected leaders support, check out this crucial map.
Also:

ElectionInspection has done some great quantitative analysis on the Texas contest. Check out their extensive district by district breakdown of likely delegate allocation based on demographic voting patterns similar to those seen on Super Tuesday. According to their projection, Obama wins the delegate count 98-95.

Update: With a lot more polling being done in texas, ElectionInspection has new numbers up – According to their projection, Obama wins the delegate count 102-91.

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