Change we can Xerox?

Analysis - February 21, 2008

Barack Obama’s response in the CNN Debate in Austin to a question about plagiarism was clear and on point. He said, “This is where we start getting into silly season in politics, and I think people start getting discouraged about it.” In response, Hillary Clinton accused Obama of proposing not change you can believe in but “change you can Xerox.”

This was an odd comment, and a little surprising coming from Clinton. From a strategic standpoint, attacking Obama for being unoriginal is a bit of a non-starter. For one, he’s patently bright. He has written two decent books, has a pretty wonkish understanding of policy issues and was editor of the Harvard Law Review. Second, calling him on a technicality – not citing his sources – sounds like the smart girl in high school getting upset that her rival didn’t follow every rule. Obama is still a whiz-kid, whether he references correctly or not. And in this case, he admitted his mistake.

But this is part of a larger problem for Clinton. She needs to win big in Texas and Ohio in order to even stay in this race – probably by over 60%. A new poll puts the two dead even in Texas. While she knows she needs to go on the offensive in order to stay alive, she also needs to find a way to get at him that voters perceive to be fair. The problem is that attacking the nice guy makes the attacker look weak, not strong.

She now faces several mediocre options. She can stay on the offensive and hope that John McCain’s mini-scandal over whiffs of infidelity with a lobbyist ends by Monday. She can continue to emphasize her hard-core economic and job growth plan to counter the massive shift of union support toward Obama. And she can keep cozying up to the white working class suburban folks in the hope that they will perceive Obama as the candidate of the rich. But what she is unlikely to accomplish, in all of this, is a big turnaround.

Clearly Obama has captured the best hopes and energies of the Democratic Party. He has also converted many disillusioned Republicans who want to be on the right side of history, for once. His fundraising efforts remain unrivaled and his supporters are amped. He has run an incredible campaign on the strength of his character, his intelligence and his charisma. Where Obama’s campaign is about moving on, Clinton’s campaign is more about moving back – to 2000, when Bush got the job in a judicial decision many people to this day consider wrong.

The Democrats have apparently chosen a winner.