Texas Caucus

By all readings, Texas’s strange caucus/primary on March 4 has become a must-win for Hillary Clinton. A recent CNN poll puts Obama ahead by 4 points, and Frank Rich of the New York Times blasted Clinton’s campaign for having no post-Super Tuesday strategy. From Clinton: “I’ve got people trying to understand it as we speak. Grown men are crying as we speak. I had no idea it was so bizarre.” This contrasts sharply with Obama. In his speech after winning the Wisconsin primary, Obama started urging his supporters to send in their ballots early so they are more likely to show up on election night to pull for him in the post-voting caucus.

So now Clinton lags in polls, advertising prowess and momentum. She has been hitting Obama hard for his position on accepting federal election money in the general election and on his mailer pointing out that her health care plan forces taxpayers to buy health insurance. She also blasted Obama for being “like Bush” (saying he is “indecisive” – which doesn’t seem much like Bush) when it comes to foreign policy, and released a photo of Obama donning the garb of Somali elders on a Senate trip – this last apparently meant to scare Ohioans and Texans into thinking he is the Manchurian candidate.

Her new fear tactics are unlikely to be enough to collect a large majority of Texas’s delegates. If she loses either Ohio or Texas, she then must win over the remainder the undecided superdelegates (which is unlikely) as well as an ugly legal fight over the delegations from Florida and Michigan. This is all a sunny scenario for John McCain.

So how does the Texas Caucus work? Some key points to remember:

• Unless Senator Clinton can gain 62.51% of the vote in the four biggest South Texas Districts, she and Senator Obama will split most of the South Texas (largely Latino) vote. Obama’s union endorsements will help him dampen any primary losses by helping him in the caucuses after the polls close.

• Playing strong in South Texas will only prevent Senator Obama from defeat. In order to win, he must perform exceedingly well across the three major TX markets: Austin, Houston, and Dallas.

• The Texas caucus system awards the candidate with the most active voters who return to vote a second time at 7:15 PM on Election Day, and there’s absolutely no question that Senator Obama is dominating the caucuses. (–all from Burnt Orange – great site if you want to know the complex workings of their nominating process)

Delegates break down like this:

• 126 “primary-chosen” delegates, allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4.
• 42 at-large, “caucus-chosen” delegates that are filtered through Texas’s party system and awarded on the basis of strength at the post-voting caucuses. These are regular voters pledged to one candidate or another.
• 25 pledged “party delegates” that are decided at the state convention, roughly on the basis of a candidate’s caucus results. These are party leaders and elected officials.
• 35 unpledged “super delegates.” (4 are already with Clinton; 2 with Obama.

TEXANS: If you want to know which candidate your elected leaders support, check out this crucial map.
Also:

ElectionInspection has done some great quantitative analysis on the Texas contest. Check out their extensive district by district breakdown of likely delegate allocation based on demographic voting patterns similar to those seen on Super Tuesday. According to their projection, Obama wins the delegate count 98-95.

Update: With a lot more polling being done in texas, ElectionInspection has new numbers up – According to their projection, Obama wins the delegate count 102-91.

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