Post-Election Analysis

 

Barack Obama gave another fiery speech after the election, and Hillary Clinton issued a confident statement about her chances to prevail in the end. Both campaigns will now encamp in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and several smaller states to make their case in person again, now that the California money-pit has finally ended.

Look for Obama to continue pushing his message of change, as it is working for him. He should now focus on combing over John McCain’s weaknesses – particularly his support for Bush’s tax cuts and for the war in Iraq – and he should work them into his speeches in order to draw contrast between him and the Republican front-runner. He is in a position to take the momentum he has built and start talking like the candidate who’s ready to face down John McCain in November.

Clinton will keep her husband on a short leash and hope the resentment he built in South Carolina ceases to sway the faithful to Obama. She will focus as much as she can on the economy and health care because she seems more credible than Obama, even if she’s less eloquent.

She also has to maintain her strength among middle-class and elderly voters and get them to send in their ballots early, as that seems to have carried her in California. What’s the use in a frantic GOTV effort when a MITV – “Mail-in the Vote” – plan takes care of everything ahead of time. This is where Hillary Clinton is very strong: keeping her papers in order. He may have a movement, but she’s got an organization. The battle for Texas is an especially weird caucus, where organization is key. Andrew Sullivan postulates Obama will have an advantage here.